Sporadic Iran-US and Iran-Israel strikes and counter-strikes have led to concerns. As per the reports of multiple sources including the BBC and CNN, several strikes and counter-strikes have taken place between the US and Iran amidst the ongoing ceasefire. Moreover, attacks and counter-attacks have been carried out by Iran and Israel for the first time since the commencement of the ceasefire. These led to several deaths and increased concerns among many. Moreover, these developments have put a challenge to the ongoing ceasefire deal on the Iran-US-Israel war, may risk the ongoing talks and can increase — at least somewhat — the chance of further conflicts among the parties anew.
Various reasons may deteriorate the situation in the coming days and increase the chance of renewed conflicts. The difficulty/delay in reaching a permanent ceasefire or a peace agreement on the Iran war, which started with the sudden US-Israel strikes in Iran in late February, the continuation of Israel’s strikes in Lebanon and the conflicts of strategic interest of the parties. The permanent ceasefire has still remained particularly difficult to reach, despite repeated peace proposals, peace talks and some progress between the US and Iran, due to the disagreements over several crucial points including Iran’s nuclear program, the withdrawal of US sanctions imposed on Iran, the release of the US freeze of Iran’s assets and the disagreement over the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel-Lebanon strikes and counter-strikes need to be noted here. Israel’s continued strikes on Lebanon and killings — even after the ceasefire — may increase the chance of further conflicts involving Iran, Israel and Hezbollah. Israel’s continued strikes in Lebanon have led to criticisms from many parties. While Israel continued strikes in Lebanon targeting Hezbollah, a close ally of Tehran, due to various causes including its intention to occupy a part of southern Lebanon and domestic political challenges to the Israeli prime minister, and considers Lebanon outside the ongoing ceasefire, Iran has been considering Israel’s strikes as a violation of the ceasefire and has threatened to carry out further attacks if Lebanon is attacked.
But conflicts between Israel and Hezbollah, the group with which Israel has long enmity and which has been receiving support from Iran, especially after the US-Israel strikes in Iran, are a part of the Iran-US-Israel war, not the war that started previously especially in the Gaza war, which started in 2023. Unsurprisingly, the ongoing ceasefire in the Iran-US-Israel war and its subsequent extension cannot deny Lebanon as its part. It automatically involves Lebanon, even if Israel denies it and aims to dismantle the group, a political and armed group, from Lebanon.
It is desired that measures be taken to end strikes and counter-strikes among the parties. Ending the strikes of the IDF in Lebanon is vital. The positive side is that the US has urged Israel not to attack Iran and urged both parties to stop strikes. But reaching a permanent solution involving all parties including Lebanon is vital to end such sporadic attacks and counter-attacks and cancel out the chance of re-escalation of the Iran war. The parties need to rely on talks rather than conflict to reach a settlement. Talks are progressing —even if there is no final deal yet.
The point of Hezbollah and its disarmament in the ongoing US-mediated peace process between Israel and Lebanon, needs and is desired to be resolved through talks too. The employment of force to dismantle the group, seen by the US as an obstacle to reaching the agreement on the Iran war, is difficult in practical terms. Such measures will not only facilitate the continuation and escalation of the war but also lead to avoidable deaths and displacement of many. But talks need to include the group too for a peaceful settlement.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
