Tensions have increased between Ethiopia and Eritrea, leading to concerns. As per the reports of the BBC, a war of words has heightened between the two countries over Ethiopia’s calls for its access to the Red Sea through Eritrea. While Addis Ababa demands its access to the Red Sea, Asmara denies it. Escalated war of words has led to tensions between the two parties in the Horn of Africa and fears of a war. But how much the ongoing war of words leads to a direct war between the two parties — relations between which have good for a brief period but which have frequently been strained — remains uncertain.
There are various reasons that may lead to conflict between the two parties, which fought a full-scale war in 1998-2000 over border disputes that led to the deaths of nearly 100000. Ethiopia’s ambitions for access to the Red Sea, unresolved border issues, the legacy of past wars, the ongoing fallout from internal Ethiopian conflicts and Eritrea’s alleged destabilization efforts in Ethiopia may increase the chance of conflicts. Amidst volatile relations, the pursuit of access to the sea for Ethiopia, which became landlocked following the formal independence of Eritrea in 1993, has been increasing tensions between the parties for years especially since late 2023. The Abiy government of Ethiopia framed this access as a necessity for the nation’s economic and security needs.
In the latest developments, Ethiopia has reiterated its desire for access to the Red Sea, while Eritrea has rejected it. Ethiopian leaders frame direct maritime access as an “existential matter”. Several Ethiopian officials have raised the possibility of securing the southern port of Assab — a strategically important port — through the use of force should diplomatic efforts fail. Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, the Ethiopian army chief, said that the military would fight a country that had denied Ethiopia access to the Red Sea but the Information Ministry of Eritrea said that attempts to legitimize “flagrant aggression” would bring serious consequences for Ethiopia, increasing the chance of further tensions.
But the chance of war is probably low at this moment. There are several reasons including internal challenges and resource constraints that are more indicative of it. Ethiopia is currently engaged in significant internal conflicts in the Amhara and Oromia regions. Engaging in a full-scale war with Eritrea can be costly and difficult for it. Unsurprisingly, there is a lack of military movements by Ethiopia, even if it emphatically threatens. Contrarily, Eritrea has limited economic and human resources and may not easily afford a full-scale direct confrontation with the larger Ethiopian army. Yet further tensions with escalating war of words, along with a possibility of a direct war, are not unlikely altogether if there is no mediation effort.
Talks are vital to address the concerns and reduce the chance of conflicts between the parties, which were then allies in Ethiopia’s 2020-2022 civil war in Tigray. Multilateral institutions such as the African Union, which, or more precisely, the predecessor of which (the OAU), mediated the 2000 Algiers Peace Agreement, and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development can offer neutral platforms for dialogue between the parties. But ad-hoc mediation by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (which facilitated the 2018 Asmara Peace Deal), Turkey, or the United States or regional states including South Africa may also help prevent escalation.
The 2000 Algiers Peace Agreement and the 2018 Asmara Peace Deal, a political agreement based on a mutual understanding to fully implement the prior, binding border ruling and normalize relations, between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which have a history of engaging in proxy conflicts, could be a reasonable and useful guide to resolve the issue of Red Sea access and reduce the chance of war — which could bring many impacts including disrupting maritime traffic and drawing in outside powers to conflicts, if it happens.
But mediation efforts need to address several issues including conflicting national interests, the issue of Ethiopia’s Red Sea access and deep-seated mistrust between the parties. While Ethiopia prioritizes maritime access and economic integration, Eritrea fears Ethiopian hegemony and seeks security through weakening its large neighbor. But the goodwill of the parties including Ethiopia is vital.
