The peace process on the resolution of the Ukraine war has been going on. Several talks have already been held between the US and Russia and between Russia and Ukraine on the Ukraine war. Direct talks between the US president and Russian president held in Alaska raised hope — even if there are no concrete outcomes — for ending the war. But various complicated and troublesome developments are occurring. As per the BBC and CNN, Russia’s second-biggest aerial attack on various buildings in Kyiv including the EU Headquarters last month infuriated the United Kingdom and the European Union. But more importantly, it remains unclear whether the war will end soon or whether the chance of a larger war will remain.
The Ukraine war, which has so far killed more than 200000 from the warring parties, has always been a risk of escalation into a larger war. Various complicated developments including unprecedentedly imposed sanctions and counter sanctions, the Ukrainian attacks inside Russia, the sending of Ukrainian forces into the Kursk region of Russia, along with the heightened and long geopolitical rivalries especially since the Cold War between Russia and the West and several others, have increased the chance of escalating the war to a larger war and the possibility of a nuclear warfare. But the war has so far not turned into a larger war probably because of several reasons including the lack of interest of the parties and possible unprecedented outcomes.
But the peace process itself has reduced the chance of a larger European war and increased the chance of ending the war. But it is uncertain whether and how much peace efforts will resolve the war. There are various crucial challenges that can put hindrances to the resolution of the war, which has been going on since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The territorial concerns have not yet been resolved between Ukraine and Russia. Security concerns of Europe — especially after the resolution of the risky war —and sanctions and counter-sanctions imposed can also make the situation deteriorate and increase the chance of a larger war.
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Though the ongoing Ukraine Peace Process itself can hinder any larger escalation in the region and beyond, delayed resolution of the war can provide a greater scope for more complicated developments, potentially lead to frustration over the peace process, if it is delayed, along with strategic actions of the parties to take advantages in the ongoing talks, that can increase its chance. On the contrary, an earlier resolution with the ongoing peace talks, though these have not yet led to any concrete agreement, can reduce the chance of a larger war.
The positive side is that US-promoted talks, going on since February 2025, on the resolution have been going on and the parties are probably more willing to end the costly war now than ever — though it remains unclear when peace terms will be reached. Putting emphasis on continuing talks will help not only in averting complicated developments, accidentally and/or intentionally, but also in finding a solution. But an earlier resolution is vital.
The challenges including the disagreements on the territorial aspects need to be addressed to end the war. But direct talks between Russia and Ukraine are vital and can help address challenges and reach a resolution. But for this, the good intentions of all the parties are vital. If challenges are not addressed, the situation may deteriorate further and a larger war can take place.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
