The peace process on the resolution of the Ukraine war has been going on. Several talks have already been held between the US and Russia and between Russia and Ukraine on the Ukraine war. Direct talks between the US president and the Russian president held in Alaska raised hope — even if there are no concrete outcomes — for ending the war. But various complicated and troublesome developments are occurring. As per the BBC and CNN, Russia’s second-biggest aerial attack on various buildings in Kyiv including the EU Headquarters last month infuriated the United Kingdom and the European Union. But more importantly, it remains unclear whether the war will end soon or whether the chance of a larger war will remain.
The Ukraine war, which has in the meantime killed more than 200000 including civilians, has always been at risk of escalation into a larger war. Various complicated developments including unprecedented sanctions and countersanctions, Ukrainian attacks inside Russia and the sending of Ukrainian forces into the Kursk region of Russia, along with the heightened and long geopolitical rivalries especially since the Cold War between Russia and the West, have increased the chance of escalating the Ukraine war into a larger war and the possibility of nuclear warfare. But, optimistically saying, it has so far not turned into a larger war probably because of several reasons including the lack of interest of the parties in the escalation and possible unprecedented outcomes.
But the US-promoted peace process itself has reduced the chance of a larger European war and increased the chance of ending the war. But it is difficult to be certain whether and how much peace efforts will resolve the war, which has been going on since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. There are various crucial challenges that can hinder its resolution. The territorial concerns have not yet been resolved between Ukraine and Russia, which currently occupies around 20 percent of the Ukrainian territory. The security concerns of Europe — especially after the resolution of the risky war —and sanctions and counter-sanctions imposed can also deteriorate the situation and may increase the chance of a larger war.
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Though the ongoing Ukraine Peace Process itself can hinder any larger war escalation in the region and beyond, its delayed resolution can provide a greater scope for more complicated developments including strategic attacks of the parties aiming to take advantage in the ongoing talks and potentially lead to frustration over the peace process that can increase its chance. On the contrary, an earlier resolution, which still remains unclear, with the ongoing peace talks can reduce the chance of a larger war by preventing new troublesome offensives by either of the warring parties and mitigating the risks of direct NATO and Russian confrontation.
But, positively saying, US-promoted talks, which started in February 2025, have been going on and the directly and indirectly involved parties are probably more willing to end the costly and consequentially far-reaching war now than ever — though it remains unclear when peace terms will be reached. Putting emphasis on continuing talks will help not only in averting complicated and troublesome developments, accidentally and/or intentionally, but also in finding an acceptable solution. But an earlier resolution is vital.
But the challenges including the disagreements on the territorial aspects need to be addressed earlier to end the war earlier. Direct talks between the presidents of Russia and Ukraine, which have remained at risk, are vital and will help address various challenges and reach a resolution. But for this, the political willingness of all the parties is vital. Otherwise, the situation of the war may deteriorate further and a larger war can take place.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
