Approximately 40 percent of the world’s population lives in India and China combined. China is the second-largest economy globally, while India is currently fourth but is expected to move up to third soon. Given the geostrategic importance of the area, it is no surprise that President Obama chose to “pivot” to Asia in 2011. Ever since, the US focus has been on containing China’s rise and its insurmountable presence in the region. Consequently, the US has bet on India in this bold “new great game” to advance its strategic goals in the Indo-Pacific vis-à-vis China. But a detailed examination reveals that, as of now, India remains in a fragile state to act as an effective offshore balancer in the Indo-Pacific region.
The Indo-Pacific is a crucial region where geopolitical competition is growing and where the emergence of a multipolar world could lead to either conflict or cooperation involving many countries including India, which is considered a balancing factor, and China. But there are significant differences between the capabilities of the two countries. Notably, India’s capabilities as a ‘balancer’ in the Indo-Pacific framework have limitations. There are some compelling reasons behind this assessment. India pursues and is likely to pursue its own foreign policies, and it cannot sever its trade ties and border connections with China. A little background will clarify the geostrategic positions of India and China. India, a major player on the global stage, is not a “pawn” in the US-China rivalry.
India remains committed to pursuing its long-standing, strategic, and independent foreign policies. For example, despite severe warnings of consequences from the US, India has maintained a strong relationship with Russia and Iran. Moreover, India envisions a multipolar world and seeks to assert its presence within it. In contrast, China is building itself to become a regional hegemon in the Indo-Pacific and a global power. As such, it’s modernizing the military to achieve A2/AD – anti-access and area denial – in the region. Due to the gap in their economic and military power, China views India as a major power, rather than a serious threat to China’s vast power and hegemonic ambitions in the Indo-Pacific.
There are two essential requirements for a country to become a great power or a hegemon: a strong economy and a powerful military. First, from the economic viewpoint, China has a strong economy and is advancing rapidly. India is also gradually climbing the ranks. However, India’s economic prosperity heavily depends on materials and supplies from China. For instance, a large portion of India’s industrial machinery and nuclear reactors, as well as forty percent of the raw materials used in India’s pharmaceutical industry, come from China. These sectors play a crucial role in stimulating and sustaining the Indian economy’s buoyancy. Due to the gravity of economic relationships, any restrictions China imposes on these supplies would have a significant impact on India’s economy.
Second, from the viewpoint of military power, China is more advanced and has the capability of becoming a hegemon. It has the largest navy in the world, a blue-water navy, and a foreign military base in Djibouti. India, in contrast, lacks many of the military assets that China has. For example, the number of Chinese active-duty military personnel exceeds 2 million, whereas India’s number is approximately 1.45 million. China’s defense budget is a staggering $229 billion, while India’s is a comparatively modest $73.4 billion. China builds most of its military hardware, while India heavily imports it. This overwhelming military superiority of China over India underlines the imbalance and its potential implications in the geopolitical landscape.
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Nevertheless, the core of the contentious relations between India and China, two nuclear- armed countries, revolves around sovereignty and security. In terms of sovereignty, there are controversial claims and counter-claims between China, which considers all of Tibet to be an integral part of itself, and India, which regards Kashmir as its own, regarding Arunachal Pradesh/South Tibet and Eastern Ladakh/Aksai Chin which have resulted in border tensions. For example, the violent face-off between Indian and Chinese troops in the Galwan Valley in 2020, a region in the disputed Aksai Chin, brought their relationship to its lowest point.
Regarding security, India has aligned itself with the US on geostrategic issues. Despite China’s strong warnings, India has joined the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), a strategic forum among the United States, Japan, Australia, and India. Additionally, India has signed security agreements, participates in military training, and receives advanced warfare technologies from the US as a security partner. China views these developments as an irritant. To balance Indian security measures, China has strengthened Pakistan’s military capabilities, cooperated with other South Asian countries, and advanced Belt and Road Initiative projects across the region. Furthermore, China has engaged in “military diplomacy” with these countries, which brings their relations closer than those with India. For example, after the fall of the Hasina government, China-Bangladesh relations have expanded, while ties with India have diminished.
To avert the military conflict between, India and China, which share a deep connection and common interests and aim to be leading voices for the Global South and are members of BRICS, which provides an alternative to US dollar dominance in global trade, both the country should proceed with caution. India should proceed cautiously with China until it strengthens its capabilities. Reaching an early peace agreement with China might benefit India more than the latter. But China should also avoid conflicts with India to safeguard its strategic interests not only in the South China Sea but also in the East China Sea.
Similarly, both India and China should be cautious in avoiding direct conflicts with the United States, which imposed tariffs on those two countries. The Trump tariffs, which have created divisions that can make it easier for India and China to focus on immediate issues between them and which may eventually lead the US to realize that a multipolar world is the future, where both China and India become major global powers, have detrimental impacts, though disproportionately. But as the world shifts toward a multipolar order, the US, China, and India should both compete and cooperate to create a conflict-free Indo-Pacific region.
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