Myanmar is probably going to hold the elections in 2025. The junta government has indicated the possibility of holding the elections. This can be promising, will be a commendable initiative, may help resolve many problems including political in Myanmar and lead to an elected government. The declaration of possible elections came at the time when conflicts have mounted in Myanmar with rebel groups in several states. Though many political parties have by this time submitted their lists to participate in the elections, many other political parties including the National League for Democracy, which was in power when it was ousted through the bloodless military coup in 2021, remained banned, leading to concerns.
But it remains uncertain whether the elections will be held. The possibility remains. The military government seems to be serious to hold the elections and has by this time said several times to hold the national elections very confidently. Its seriousness is not surprising at all. This is probably because of not only the validity of its rule the elections will provide both nationally and internationally but also generating the national support that can divert attention and help it against the rebel groups at least somewhat. The military government has not received international support and it has been facing challenges from rebels in several states. Given these, the junta government will probably hold the elections, even if the intendeds time changes.
Whatever the reasons for the elections may be, holding elections is better than no elections, though these are rendered by many in Myanmar and beyond to be a “sham” designed to legitimize continued military rule and not rendered as a sign of democratic progress. Myanmar has been struggling with democracy for decades. Even if elected governments led Myanmar for several times, all such governments could not complete their tenure and democratic institutions have not developed and party-based politics has little space. But it is difficult to be certain about the elections at this moment, though the possibility remains. It also remains uncertain whether the elections will be free, fair and credible, even if elections are held, and how much it will be participatory.
There are conflicts based, political and other challenges to the elections — the first ever elections, if the elections are held at all, after the military coup in 2021 that ousted the elected government over election irregularities — including armed conflicts in several states that have been going on for years. Armed conflicts, which have killed many in several states by this time and increased during the last two years, killing hundreds from the government and rebel groups, can put barriers to the elections. Even if the military Janta remains serious and elections are held at the end of the year or later, armed conflicts can put vital challenges to peaceful elections especially in several states including the Shan State.
But the participatory elections, even if the elections are held, remain challenging. It remains uncertain for once the major political party NLD, which was banned by the junta in 2023 and many of its leaders including Aung San Suu Kyi were arrested immediately after the coup, in the elections in Myanmar where elections are not frequent since it has mostly been ruled by the military for decades especially since 1962 with only some exceptions including the NLD led government for two terms. Pertinently saying, there is no indication from the junta government to include the NLD, the party that first came to power in 2015 after a landslide victory and secured a second term in the 2020 elections, in the elections.
But free, fair and participatory elections are vital in Myanmar, where political institutions and political parties have not yet to be desirably developed despite several democratic governments and elections including the 1990 and the 2015 elections. Not only the political parties but also other political institutions are not desirably developed. The elections will lead to an improvement in governance, improve the rule of law and help make more acceptable laws and policies that can be beneficial for all regardless of race, religion and culture. Such elections will also help improve the political culture in Myanmar with increased tolerance toward diversified political views. Pertinently saying, there is a lack of accountability and the rule of law as desired in Myanmar.
But there are also legal and other challenges to the electoral system in Myanmar that need to be addressed for holding free, fair and credible elections. Voters enfranchisement, especially among minorities, the dominance of the ruling party in state media during elections, a lack of an independent election commission and a lack of independent electoral complaint mechanisms are some of the crucial challenges that undermine the fairness of the electoral process in Myanmar and put hindrances to free, fair and credible elections. The criminal prosecutions of government critics and limited space for dissents can also put crucial hindrances to holding free, fair and credible elections in Myanmar.
But the challenges need to be addressed, if the junta government wants to hold free, fair and participatory elections in Myanmar. Pertinently saying, without free, fair and participatory elections, political institutions and politics may not be improved as desired. For this, talks with different political parties are vital and will be helpful. Talks may help address various electoral challenges and concerns and can increase the chance of holding free, fair, credible and participatory elections. But the proactive role of the junta government is vital and will be helpful not only in holding talks with the parties but also in holding free, fair and credible elections in Myanmar, along with holding participatory elections.
But peace initiatives are crucial to hold free, fair and peaceful elections in Myanmar, rendered one of the most authoritarian regimes around the world. Without the participation of the major political parties especially the National League for Democracy, the elections, even if these are held, may not be accepted nationally and internationally. But different countries and organizations can be helpful in holding participatory and peaceful elections. Talks with the rebel groups is vital and may help hold peaceful elections. But the good intentions of the military are vital and will help address challenges and hold free, fair and participatory elections.
But improved political grounds are vital and can be beneficial for all including political parties. Given that the elections are held with or without the participation of all parties including the NLD, the possibility of which is probably high, putting emphasis on the improvement of the political grounds is needed. Unless the political grounds of Myanmar are improved, there is probably not desirable improvements, even if the elections are held.
