The possibility of another war between Israel and Lebanon has increased, leading to concerns. Both parties have increased border fires this month. According to multiple sources including the BBC and CNN, tensions have increased between the parties. While Hezbollah has sent larger volleys of drones and missiles across the border this month, Israel has carried out attacks in various places, leading to dozens of deaths of both parties, along with their threats of a full-scale war. By this time, the Israel Defense Force has ”approved and validated” operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon amidst mutual threats by the parties, leading to growing concerns for another Israel-Lebanon war.
The Gaza war has killed around forty thousand people and brought other negative outcomes. But the war between Israel and Lebanon, which fought the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war that followed a cross-border attack by Hezbollah fighters, will lead to devastating consequences for both parties including millions of people on both sides of the border. While Hezbollah is a well-armed and well-trained army, backed by Iran, Israel is a sophisticated military power with the US as an ally. Consequently, the Israel-Lebanon war is less likely to be one-sided — similar to the Israel-Hamas war — and may bring high casualties from both sides. Moreover, such a war will significantly increase the chance of a larger war, along with economic consequences including disruption in international trade.
The positive side is that there are international oppositions and diplomatic steps to prevent a full-scale war between Israel and Lebanon. While the United States and the European Union are in opposition to such a war, US diplomacy is going on to calm the situation on the Israel-Lebanon border. Among others, both parties do not appear to be interested in the war now. Israel is wary of the months-long Gaza war that has not only killed the members of Hamas but also brought significant harm to Israeli soldiers, while Hezbollah probably views its involvement in the current exchange of fires with Israel as support for its Hamas ally in Gaza rather than its interest in a full-scale war.
But it remains unclear whether these will cancel out the chance of another Israel-Lebanon war because of geopolitical/political and other reasons. It is notable that pressure from the United States and the European Union did not work earlier. For example, their pressure failed to prevent Israel’s invasion of Rafah. Moreover, Israel repeatedly says that it will completely destroy Hamas, while Lebanon says that it will continue to attack Israel unless Israel, which has growing support for a war in the north, ends the Gaza war. The continuation of the Gaza war and any major strikes against any of the parties may lead to an unintentional full-scale Israel-Lebanon war.
It is desired that another war be avoided between the parties. For this, the good intentions of the parties involved are crucial. But international efforts with good intentions are also vital to reduce the chance of a war between Israel and Lebanon. The continued peace talks of the United States with both parties may be helpful. Ending the Gaza war is also vital to reduce the risk of the escalation of it in the entire region, including the potential Israel-Hezbollah war. Unless the Gaza war is ended, the possibility of another Israel-Lebanon war is unlikely to be canceled out — even though peace efforts de-escalate between them now.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
