Armed conflicts in Myanmar have fiercely increased. The Myanmar army — which came to power through a bloodless coup in February 2021 — has left hundreds of military bases and security posts facing the unprecedented attack of rebel groups in several states. According to multiple sources including the BBC and CNN, intense fighting has been going on between the government forces and rebels since the beginning of Operation 1027 last year in several states including the Shan State and Rakhine, leading to many deaths and displacement. But there is an absence of any notable peace steps in ending the current wave of deadly armed conflicts, increasing the possibility of unprecedented devastating outcomes for Myanmar.
But given the extent of the problem, it remains unclear whether lasting peace is possible in Myanmar at all. It is notable that the crisis in Myanmar is complex. The complexity of the armed conflicts in Myanmar is definitely multi-faceted and deeply rooted in historical, ethnic and political factors. Armed conflicts involve various ethnic armed groups and the Myanmar junta, each having their own agendas for several decades. But the struggle for autonomy, resource control and political representation has complicated the situation — making it challenging to achieve a sustainable resolution and peace in Myanmar. Additionally, and importantly, the long struggle between democracy and the military regime is another crucial problem that has made the Myanmar crisis further complex.
But a political solution is definitely desirable for Myanmar. While it is vital to end the current wave of armed conflicts, it is also important to seek lasting peace since armed conflicts will not end unless a mutually acceptable long-term solution is sought and reached. The political solution needs to resolve the issues of autonomy, the political representation of rebels, the struggle between political parties and the army and resource control, along with addressing grievances including forced displacement. But the transition to political government, securing political representation of all states and rebels and the integration of rebel fighters into the national army may be a possible ultimate solution to the Myanmar crisis.
To reach a political solution and lasting peace, it is crucial to involve a comprehensive and inclusive peace process. This could include dialogue and negotiations between all relevant stakeholders, such as the military regime, ethnic armed groups (including the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Arakan Army), political parties (including the National League for Democracy) and civil society organizations. But there are diverse challenges to a political solution including the lack of trust between different groups, the power-seeking mentality of the military and the differing demands of different groups. But the unwillingness of the parties especially the military is a crucial challenge to reaching a political solution.
It is definitely difficult to successfully negotiate peace in Myanmar. The role of international actors including the United Nations, the United States and the European Union is definitely imperative. But it is the positive step of the regional forums such as the ASEAN and neighboring countries especially China, which has very effective relations with Myanmar, that is crucial. The good intention of the parties in Myanmar including the military regime, the most important actor in the Myanmar crisis, is also imperative to reach a political solution to the current armed conflict and the decades-long crisis. Otherwise, it may not be surprising if Myanmar turns out to be several countries in the future.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
