The Ukraine war that started with the Russian invasion of Ukraine last year has been going on for more than one year leading to the death of thousands and negative economic and other impacts in Russia, Ukraine and many other countries around the world. But no remarkable efforts have yet been made to end the war in which the west got involved with military aid and financial and other support to Ukraine to fight Russians from the beginning, though the prospects for ending the war were visible several times. In the latest effort to end the war, China has made a twelve-point peace proposal leaving the prospect of ending the crisis, althogh there are criticisms of it.
Definitely, the peace proposal, which was made public on 24th February at the Munich Security Conference, has not provided any concrete solution to the war. But the plan — positively saying —provides ways to end the war and reach solutions to it. Most importantly, the proposal included some points including the cessation of hostilities and the resumption of peace talks that can lead to ending the war and solving the crisis. The proposal may at least help to develop the ground needed to hold talks among the parties and end the war, given that all the parties of the war exercise restraint, avoid aggravating tensions and prevent the crisis from further deterioration. An early ceasefire is important to end the war earlier through effective negotiations.
The proposal has some other good aspects that can help to reduce the destruction of the war, save lives in the war and reduce the impacts of it across the world. For instance, China’s proposal on several other aspects especially reducing strategic risks, protecting civilians and prisoners of war and keeping nuclear power plants safe will reduce deaths including the deaths of civilians. Moreover, some points of the proposal including keeping industrial and supply chains stable and facilitating grain exports may help to keep/promote economic growth and reduce the global impacts of the war especially through helping avoid any potential food crisis. Also, the proposal includes a point to reconstruct Ukraine from its devastation after the war.
Definitely, the optimistic side is that Russia and Ukraine have welcomed China’s proposal. While Moscow has mentioned that it is interested in the political and diplomatic means of ending the war, Ukraine has appreciated the proposal but termed it ”general”. Also, the Ukrainian president has expressed interest to hold talks with the president of China on its proposed ‘territorial integrity’. But the United States which criticizes China for its non-participation in the economic sanctions imposed on Moscow and its non-lethal assistance to Russia and NATO which criticizes the potential weapon supply of China to Russia — an accusation denied by Beijing — have not given any welcoming signal to the twelve-point position paper, rendered by western analysts as pro-Russian.
More importantly, the West has criticized the proposal of China, which had called for a cease-fire in the past but whose leadership has been unwilling to take any concrete actions, on several grounds including the credibility of the proposal, the international credibility of China as a mediator and its refusal to condemn the Russian invasion. Growing China-US tension and several other causes may also put some challenges to the mediation of China. But the growing pro-Russian acts of China, which has not yet decisively supported Russia despite its geopolitical alignment with it and has opposed the use of nuclear weapons after the beginning of the Ukraine war, may not be significantly problematic in its mediations for the resolution of the war.
Since the west has not completely/outright dismissed the peace plan even if it criticized it heavily, further steps to mediate among the directly and indirectly involved parties including Russia, Ukraine and the United States are desirable. Given that China, which struggles to balance its “no-limits” relationship with Moscow and fraying ties with the West, made the proposal, its efforts as a peace broker — instead of any other party — to hold peace talks is more relevant. Concrete and acceptable solutions to the Ukraine war may come in the discussions of the parties. But peace talks are less likely to be held and the war is less likely to be acceptably ended unless the involved parties are interested.
