As is known, the government of Venezuela and the opposition which resumed talks on ending a grinding political crisis signed a preliminary agreement this week in a meeting held in Mexico. According to available sources, the partial agreement was signed on social matters the parties issued a joint statement after signing the agreement requesting the release of billions of dollars frozen by foreign banks abroad a few years back due to controversial elections in 2018. Though it is a preliminary and partial agreement mediated by Norway, this is a good development in Venezuela that came after several failed efforts made earlier to solve the political crisis and may help to mitigate the political impasse. Yet, it remains unclear whether it will solve the political problem.
It is pertinent to note that Venezuela is in a political stalemate after the elections in 2018. According to available sources, the 2018 election was controversial. Though President Nicolas Maduro claimed the elections credible, the opposition leader Juan Guaidó claimed manipulated. Later protests mounted in Venezuela against the goverment leading to a crackdown on the protests and the arrests of many opposition leaders and supporters and forcing the opposition leader to leave the country. The opposition leader declared him as the interim president. Also, the controversial elections and subsequent political crackdown led to the imposition of sanctions on Venezuela by the United States and the European Union, which recognized the opposition leader as the interim president of Venezuela in 2019, and the freezing of billions of dollars abroad.
The present effort may be successful because of not only the intention of the parties but also foreign governments including the United States and the European Union and the agreement may help not only to mitigate political problems but also to address economic and other concerns in Venezuela. It is relevantly notable that Venezuela has been caught in a downward spiral for years with growing political discontent further fuelled by skyrocketing hyperinflation, power cuts and shortages of food and medicine. Economic crisis and political impasse have, according to a UN estimate, led seven million Venezuelans to leave the country in recent years. By this time, the United States told that it would allow the American oil company Chevron to resume some activity in Venezuela.
But the advancement made is still at the earlier stage and did not resolve the main problems, though the meeting is marked as a breakthrough after 15 months of earlier negotiation talks between the government and the opposition. Notably, one of the main concerns in the Venezuelan political crisis is to hold the presidential election scheduled for 2024 but there is no progress on it, though the parties agreed to continue talks on it. No doubt, this is the problem that may again create significant troubles, including postponing discussion to a second meeting. Notably, the Venezuelan opposition emphasizes free elections (supervised by foreign observers) while President Maduro puts emphasis on the full recognition of his rule from the United States and European countries.
There are also other problems including discontent about political imprisonment, imposed international sanctions and disagreements on ways to manage frozen assets abroad. The withdrawal of sanctions is prioritized by Maduro. Notably, President Maduro told several times that his government would not hold any discussion unless sanctions are withdrawn and, after the initial agreement, has called for the negotiations to lead to the lifting of all sanctions against Venezuela, the world’s largest oil reserving country, imposed by the United States and the European Union. The positive side is that the USA eased a few sanctions and signaled that it would be willing to review its sanctions policy toward Venezuela given that talks between Maduro’s government and the opposition moved forward.
To end the political crisis in Venezuela, all the concerns need to be well-addressed. But, in this respect, talks are needed to be continued. The schedule for upcoming elections needs to be ensured, along with making sure that the elections will be credible. Also, the problem of sanctions needs to be resolved and the frozen funds need to be released. The roles of other countries including the United States are also important to mitigate the political stalemate. But all the parties including the government and the opposition need to be earnest. It is also desired that the government ends its mentality of political repression and addresses economic concerns.
