The Assad regime of Syria was ousted by rebel groups, leading to a power vacuum. According to multiple sources including the BBC and CNN, the rebel forces especially the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) ousted Bashar-al Assad — the president of Syria who ruled the country for twenty-four years after his father’s 29 years of rule — this week with their rapid advancement to Damascus without any notable resistance from the government forces. The fall of the regime, a close ally of Russia that helped it stay in power, has the potential for various positive changes including political reform but it left a power vacuum in Syria. Consequently, it remains unclear whether there will be peace and stability in Syria soon.
It is notable that Syria, where the civil war of more than thirteen years since 2011 killed more than half a million and displaced several million (though its intensity lessened in the last several years), is divided into various ethnic and armed groups and has several extremist groups. But the power vacuum created after the ouster of the regime may unsurprisingly lead to armed conflicts between different ethnic groups and the resurgence of extremists who were suppressed by the years of military campaigns by the Assad government and its allied parties including Russia. Given that steps are not taken immediately to ensure stability and restore peace, Syria may unsurprisingly turn into chaos and violence with a higher possibility of prolonging conflicts.
Positively saying, opposition parties, international actors and others are in favor of stability and peace in Syria. Opposition parties and leaders exiled during the past regime expressed the importance of sitting together to help bring stability to Syria. International actors including the United States also expressed their intention to provide the support needed for ensuring stability and bringing peace in Syria. But there are ethnic and other challenges that may make it difficult to bring stability and peace to Syria. Opposition parties and armed groups have differing political stands or ideologies ranging from liberal to extremist. Consequently, it may be difficult to reach a consensus among the parties in post-Assad Syria.
It is desired that steps be taken to ensure stability and restore peace in Syria. For this, the formation of an inclusive transitional government representing ethnically and religiously diverse populations is vital at the soonest possible time and will be immensely helpful. The emphasis also needs to be given to restoring law and order at the quickest possible time to prevent looting and protect the lives of citizens. Addressing other problems including the refugee crisis is also vital. Dialogues among opposition parties or groups in Syria could help reduce potential tensions and foster cooperative security arrangements — effectively. But the commitment of opposition parties and groups is vital.
But post-ouster power vacuum and instability may also lead to regional instability and put Syria at a higher risk of becoming a battleground for regional competition over hegemony, along with the chaos among internal groups for their differing political agendas, potentially making Syria a failed state if not appropriately and timely managed. To avert such an undesirably potential situation in the war-affected country, along with restoring peace and making a peaceful transition, the role and good intentions of international actors including, but not limited to, Turkey can be immensely helpful.
Amir M Sayem
Chief Editor
Dhaka Opinion Magazine
